Australia is heading toward a materially larger population base over the next decade, with growth projections pointing to an additional four million people by the mid-2030s. According to the Centre for Population’s latest population statement, the national population is expected to reach approximately 31.5 million by the end of 2035. While this forecast is around 150,000 people lower than earlier estimates, it still represents a substantial increase that will continue to place pressure on housing, infrastructure, and employment markets across the country.
What is notable is not just the size of the population increase, but the changing pace and composition of that growth. Population growth is forecast to slow to around 1.3 percent in the 2026 financial year. This moderation is largely driven by two factors: a reduction in net overseas migration from its recent peak, and persistently low fertility rates.
Net overseas migration surged following the reopening of international borders, peaking in the 2023 financial year. Since then, the intake has eased, with fewer temporary migrants arriving on student and visitor visas. This reflects tighter policy settings, changing global mobility patterns, and a recalibration after an unusually strong rebound period. While migration numbers are lower than the peak, they remain elevated by historical standards and continue to contribute meaningfully to population growth.
At the same time, Australia’s fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.42 children per woman. This is well below the replacement level of 2.1 and has implications for long-term workforce growth and age demographics. However, from a housing perspective, lower fertility does not equate to lower demand. Smaller household sizes, later family formation, and higher rates of separation often increase the number of dwellings required per capita.
Where population growth occurs matters more than the national headline figure. Capital cities are projected to grow at nearly twice the rate of regional areas, reinforcing long-term urbanisation trends. Sydney and Melbourne are both forecast to exceed populations of eight million people by the 2050s, placing them among the world’s largest cities. Brisbane is also expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, supported by interstate migration and infrastructure investment.
At a state and territory level, growth rates vary significantly. Western Australia is forecast to lead population growth in the 2026 financial year at 1.8 percent, reflecting strong labour demand and resource-driven employment. Queensland and Victoria are both expected to grow by 1.5 percent, followed by the ACT at 1.3 percent and the Northern Territory at 1.2 percent. New South Wales is forecast to grow at around 1.1 percent, South Australia at 0.8 percent, and Tasmania at just 0.1 percent.
These differences have direct implications for housing markets. States with stronger population growth typically experience tighter rental conditions, higher absorption of new supply, and greater competition for well-located properties. Over time, population growth acts as a slow but powerful driver of demand, supporting prices and rents even when short-term conditions fluctuate.
For buyers, population trends are not about chasing short-term gains. They are about understanding where long-term demand will concentrate and ensuring property decisions align with those structural forces.
