Renters across the country are facing what experts describe as one of the most persistent periods of housing strain in decades. New forecasts indicate annual rent bills could surge by up to $10,000 by 2035, reflecting a profound shift in affordability that will affect millions of households. According to projections from SQM Research, this increase translates to roughly $200 more per week, signalling the deepening financial pressure on tenants as supply shortages, population growth, and stalled construction pipelines continue to reshape the rental landscape.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher has emphasised that rental increases are likely to be unavoidableunless there is a large and sustained increase in new housing deliveries. Nationally, SQM expects rents to rise 2–4% in 2026, but that broad estimate masks considerable variation between cities and regions. Christopher notes that Hobart is expected to post the strongest growth, with rents predicted to climb between 6% and 10% over the next year, driven by tight vacancy rates and minimal new supply. Darwin, which has experienced a resurgence in economic activity and population movement, is forecast to record increases of 5–9%, while Perth, a market that has been running hot for several years, is projected to deliver another 4–7% rise.
In the larger eastern capitals, the increases may be less dramatic — but still meaningful. Melbourne is forecast to rise by 1–3%, while Adelaide is expected to increase between 1–4%, reflecting milder but steady demand. Brisbane, meanwhile, is positioned for somewhat stronger growth at 3–5%, continuing the upward trend that began when interstate migration surged during the pandemic years. Sydney and Canberra are both projected to rise 2–4%, a sign that even markets experiencing improved construction activity still face pressure from population inflows and insufficient rental stock coming online.
Christopher warns that these early forecasts should serve as a wake-up call for renters weighing whether to continue renting or attempt to buy sooner rather than later. He notes that population growth is expected to remain elevated through the coming decade, continuing to push demand higher across both the rental and purchasing sectors. Even though around 180,000 new dwellings are expected to be completed nationwide in 2026, he stresses that the figure still falls short of the number required to meaningfully rebalance the market.
As a result, renting is likely to become a long-term or permanent arrangement for many Australians. What was once considered a temporary stage of life — especially for young families and first-home buyers — may become a lifelong reality for growing portions of the population. Rising rents also risk widening inequality between renters and homeowners, as those already in the market continue to build equity while renters face rising costs without accumulating any asset growth.
For policymakers, the situation signals a pressing need for broader housing reform. Solutions such as accelerated planning approvals, build-to-rent expansion, higher-density development near transport corridors, and incentives for private investment are all being discussed — but implementation remains slow. Meanwhile, renters face the immediate reality of higher annual costs and shrinking availability.
